How Do You Know When Your Society Is In The Midst Of Collapse?

Wednesday, 27 January 2016 Brandon Smith
As economic turmoil worldwide becomes increasingly apparent, I have been receiving messages from readers expressing some concerns on the public “perception” of collapse. That is to say, there are questions on the average person’s concept of collapse versus the reality of collapse. This is a vital issue that I have discussed briefly in the past, but it deserves a more in-depth analysis.

What is collapse? How do we define it? And, are some of the notions of collapse in the public consciousness completely wrong?

It’s funny, because skeptics opposed to the idea of a U.S. collapse in particular will most often retort with a question they think I cannot or will not answer – “So, Mr. Smith, when specifically is this supposed collapse going to take place? What day and time?”

My response has always been – “We’re in the middle of a collapse right now; you really can’t see it right in front of your sneering face?”

The reason these people are incapable of grasping this kind of answer is in large part due to the popular mainstream conceptions of systemic collapse. These are conceptions that are for the most part delusional and not in line with the facts. The public idea of collapse comes predominantly from Hollywood, and not from personal experience. For the masses (and some preppers, unfortunately), a collapse is an “event” that happens visibly and usually swiftly. You wake up one morning and behold; the television and phones don’t work anymore and zombies are at your doorstep! Yes, it’s childish and cartoonish, but anything less than a Walking Dead/Mad Max scenario and many people act as if all other threats are benign.

This is the driving reason why many Americans are absolutely oblivious to the economic instability that is rampant and blatant within our system the past few months. They might see the same signals that alternative analysts see, but these signals do not register in their brains as dangers.

Look at it this way; say you told a person their whole life that a tiger is a 10-foot tall behemoth with four heads that breath fire while urinating flesh-rending acid. Say you make movies and TV shows about it and they never have any experience to the contrary. When they finally come across a real tiger, they might try to pet the damn thing instead of running in terror or searching for a means of defense.

To use another vicious animal analogy, when I encounter skeptics with false assumptions of what a collapse actually is, I am often reminded of that woman in Anchorage, Alaska who jumped an enclosure fence at the zoo to get a closer picture of Binky the polar bear. These people have been made so inept when it comes to identifying threats that they will continue arguing with you as the animal takes a football-sized bite out of their meaty thigh.

So what is the root of the problem beyond Hollywood fantasies? Well, the problem is that social and economic collapse is not a singular event, it is a PROCESS. Collapse is a series of events that sometimes span years. Each event increases in volatility over the last event, but as time goes on these events tend to condition the masses. The public develops a normalcy bias towards crisis (like the old “frog in a boiling pot” analogy). They lose all sense of what a healthy system looks like.

It is not uncommon for a society to wade through almost a decade or more of violent decline before finally acknowledging the system is imploding on a fundamental level. It is also not uncommon for societies to endure years of abuse by corrupt governments before either organizing effectively to rebel, or caving in and submitting to totalitarianism.

But how does one recognize a failing system? How does a person know if they are in the middle of a collapse rather than on the “verge” of collapse? Here are some signals I have derived from research of various breakdowns in modern nations and why they indicate we are experiencing collapse right now…

The Criminals Openly Admit To Their Crimes

The surest way to know if your society is in the midst of disintegration is to see if the criminals who created the instability in the first place are openly discussing a collapse scenario or warning that one is imminent.

A year ago, central bankers presented little more than a chorus of recovery propaganda. Today, not so much. The Royal Bank of Scotland is now warning investors to “sell everything” ahead of a “cataclysmic” year in markets.

The Federal Reserve’s Richard Fisher has admitted that the Fed “frontloaded” (manipulated) stock markets into a bubble and that payment is about to come due in the form of severe economic volatility (up to 20% crash in equities).

The Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of central banks, has a track record of warning the public about collapse conditions – right before they happen, leaving little or no time for people to prepare. They have followed their habit by warning in September and December that a Fed rate hike would “shatter” the uneasy calm in markets.

The former Chief Economist of the BIS now says the economy is in worse shape than it was in 2008 and is headed for a larger fall.

What happened between last year and this year and why are these internationalists suddenly so forthcoming about our economic reality? The fact that central bankers are the cause of our current collapse leads me to believe that such admissions are designed to deflect guilt. If they put out a few warnings now, they can then later claim they are prognosticators rather than culprits, and that they were trying to “help us.” Beyond that, the reality is that our situation was just as dire in 2014/2015 as it is today; the difference is that now we are about to enter a new phase in the ongoing collapse, a much more detrimental phase, but still a phase of a breakdown that has been progressing since at least 2008.

The Fundamentals Break Through The Manipulation Barrier

Governments and central banks do not have the capacity to artificially create demand for goods or a supply of well-paying jobs in a crashing economy. What they can do, though, is hide the visible problems in supply and demand with false numbers.

I examined such false economic statistics in great detail last year in a six-part series titled “One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes.” I will not cover them all again here. I would only point out that recently the fundamentals of supply and demand have begun to break through the deceit of manipulated numbers, and this is a sign that the collapse is about to move from one stage to the next.

With global shipping and trucking freight in steep decline, with retail inventories in stasis and current oil consumption falling to levels not seen since 1997 despite a larger population, the mainstream can no longer deny that consumer demand is crumbling. If demand is falling dramatically, then the financial system is in the middle of falling dramatically; there is simply no way around this truth.

Stocks And Commodities Become Violently Erratic

Let's be clear, if stock markets represent anything at all, they are merely lagging indicators of economic instability. Stock markets are NOT predictive indicators of anything useful. Therefore, any person who does nothing but track equities each day is going to be completely oblivious to the bigger picture behind the economy until it is too late. They will be so mesmerized by the green numbers and red numbers and lines on minute-to-minute graphs that they will lose all sense of reality.

Violent swings in stocks are a sign of a financial system that is at the middle or end of the collapse process, not the beginning.

It is also important to note that extreme shifts in stocks and commodity values to the upside are just as much a signal of instability as shifts to the downside. For instance, if you witnessed the recent 9% explosion in oil markets and thought to yourself "Ah, the markets are being stabilized again and nothing is different this time...", then you are an idiot.

Of course, the next day oil markets lost almost all of the gains they made the day before. And this is how markets behave when they are about to die; they expand and implode chaotically each day on nothing more that meaningless news headlines rather than hard data. This heart attack in equities inevitably trends downwards as the weeks and months pass. Keep in mind, equities are down nearly 10% from their recent highs, and oil is down approximately 50% in the past six months. Every time there is a dead cat bounce in stocks skeptics come out of the woodwork to call alternative analysts "doomers", yet they are nowhere to be found when markets come crashing back down. They are not looking at the overall trend because their short attention spans hinder them. Again, extreme swings in markets, whether up or down, are a sign of progressing collapse.

Deterioration Of Cultural Values, Heritage And Identity

I have written extensively over the years about the Cloward-Piven strategy; a strategy used by collectivists to destabilize social systems by dumping overt numbers of foreign immigrants into the population without demand for integration. This process has been obvious in the U.S. and Europe for quite some time, but only now is it peaking to the point that collapse is seen as an inevitable result by the public. Europe is worse off than the U.S. in this regard as millions upon millions of Muslim immigrants are injected into the EU’s already dying body; immigrants that intend to transplant their culture from their own failed societies rather than adopting the values and principles of the societies that have invited them in.

Natural-born Americans and legal immigrants with aspiration of integration appear to be fighting back against the Cloward-Piven strategy with some success by holding onto traditional American values despite being labeled “barbarians” and “racists.” Illegal immigration, though, is still completely unchecked.

In the EU, the long campaign of cultural Marxism has made natural-born Europeans perhaps the most self-hating people on the planet as well as the most passive and weak. Organized opposition to massive immigration programs in the EU should have taken place years ago. Now it is far too late, and the European system is finishing a social implosion which should have already been obvious to average citizens.

Open Discussion Of Totalitarian Measures

When corrupt leadership moves from quiet totalitarianism to more open totalitarianism, your society is in the FINAL stages of collapse, not the beginning of a collapse. The U.S. in particular has been slowly strangled with subversive legal directives and political policies ever since the so called “War on Terror” began. However, there are now multiple signals of a much deeper and open tyranny in the works.

A few recent examples stand out, including Barack Obama’s insistence that the office of the president has the legal authority to issues executive orders that affect constitutional protections such as the 2nd Amendment. As many liberty movement activists are aware, there is absolutely no constitutional precedent for the use of executive orders and such powers are not mentioned anywhere in the document. They were simply created out of thin air to be used by the federal government and sometimes state governments to supersede normal checks and balances.

While numerous presidents have issued executive orders, including some that were outright tyrannical, like Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s unconstitutional internment of Japanese Americans into concentration camps, George W. Bush and Barack Obama have been the most subversive in their bypassing of the Constitution. Obama, in particular, has tried to hide the number of executive actions he has taken by issuing hundreds of “presidential memorandums,” which are basically the same dirty play by another name.

These actions have been progressively setting the stage for the removal of checks and balances entirely in the name of crisis management. They are so broad in their nature and vague in their definitions and applications that they could be interpreted by federal authorities to mean just about anything in any given situation.

If executive actions are not scary enough, corrupt politicians are now becoming blunt in their demands for dominance. Two Republican Senators, Mitch McConnel and Lindsay Graham, are calling for unlimited AUMF-style (authorization of use of military force) war powers to be given to the president. Such powers would allow the president to project U.S. military forces anywhere in the world for any reason without review or time limits. This includes the use of military forces on U.S. soil.

The rationale for this is, of course, the threat of ISIS. The same group of terrorists the U.S. government helped to create.

And finally, if you want perhaps the most nonchalant admission of future tyranny in recent days, check out former General Wesley Clark’s call for “disloyal” Americans to be placed in internment camps through the duration of the war on terror, a war that could ostensibly go on forever.


One could argue that all of these measures are meant only to deter “Islamic extremism.” I would point out that government officials could have stemmed that tide at any time by enforcing existing immigration laws, or, by stopping all immigration for a period of years until the problem is handled. Instead, they have allowed open borders to remain, and have even imported potential terrorists while focusing Department of Homeland Security efforts more on evil white guys with guns.

If we accept the violation of the constitutional rights of any group of citizens, if we allow the concept of "thought crime" to become commonplace, then we leave the door open to the violation of our own rights someday. And that is how tyrants trick populations through incremental collapse; by applying despotism to a claimed dangerous minority, then expanding it to everyone else.

America is sitting near the end of the spectrum in terms of economic collapse and in the middle of the spectrum in terms of social collapse. While more violent events are certainly gestating and are likely to be triggered in the near term, we should not overlook the reality that collapse is happening in stages all around us. This process gives us at least some time. All is not lost yet, and the steps we take to organize and prepare today will affect how the collapse process unfolds tomorrow. People who continue to ignore the outright evidence of collapse based on false assumptions of what collapse should look like are only preventing themselves from taking proper action until it is too late. Make no mistake, our system is dying. We cannot allow our false perceptions of this death to cloud the reality of it, or our response to it.

They and Their, the Power that is, the System.

You can't drink "Their" water with Fluoride and Lead added and most likely "They" are adding sedatives, you can't eat "Their" vegetables and fruit, the seeds are corrupt as God has created, the produce is then sprayed with harmful chemicals. "Their" meat is Now Undocumented, "They" are spraying the air with aluminium, abortion on demand, vaccines that kill, gun control so you and I can't protect our self's from the people they do not prosecute and if they do they let them out of prison, bringing in Millions of Undocumented Illegals that hate US-A. Cloning animals and selling us fish and meat with no labeling and no testing. Segregating Black against White, Police against Black, Rich against Pour, Republicans against Democrats, Muslims against Christians. Seems to me "They" Don't have our best interest at Heart.
One must have Eyes to See and Ears to Hear.

A Tale Of Two Countries: What You Aren’t Being Told

By Chuck Baldwin
January 21, 2016

Here are two factual cases involving two separate countries. The cases both begin similarly but have drastically different endings.
Case One:
A foreign naval vessel is lumbering in international waters. It is flying a brand new 8’x5’ flag, which unmistakably identifies it as a major ally of the country whose coastline is nearest the ship. The ship’s markings are ten feet high on both sides. It is not a warship. It is an intelligence-gathering ship. For all intents and purposes, it is defenseless against any warship or attack aircraft having but four .50-calibre Browning machine guns without shrapnel shields as its only offensive weapons. On board are 286 souls.

Suddenly, and without provocation, the supposed “ally” nation attacks the ship with both warplanes and torpedo boats. For over an hour, the helpless ship is riddled with machine-gun fire, rockets, and torpedoes. Within moments, the ship is completely disabled. As it seems certain that the ship will sink, lifeboats are lowered, but the attacking torpedo boats immediately riddle the lifeboats with gunfire. Helicopters from the aggressive country carrying Special Forces troops hover over the ship, which is now listing at nine degrees. Clearly, the attacking country intends that no one survive.

The ship has no engines, no rudder, and no power. As the Special Forces soldiers from the attacking country are being positioned to launch their final assault, the ship’s Captain barks, “Standby to repel boarders.” One sailor yells, “They’ve come to finish us off.”

The only thing that saves that ship and those survivors that day is eight warplanes from a nearby aircraft carrier that had heard the initial “Mayday” cry from the ship. This caused the attacking country to withdraw. As it was, 34 of the ship’s officers and crew are killed and only a divine miracle and superhuman, Herculean effort from the sailors in the bowels of that steel graveyard keeps that ship afloat. When the attack first began, one general from the attacking country protested to his commanding officer saying, “This is pure murder.”

But what the country whose ship was attacked and whose men were killed did is most curious. It did NOTHING. In fact, the government of that country immediately declared that the attack had been a “mistake” and then proceeded to completely cover up what had happened. And to this day, the citizens of that country know almost nothing about what took place on that fateful day.

Case Two:

Two foreign military boats illegally enter the territorial waters of a nation. These boats represent a country that has declared the nation whose waters have been molested to be an enemy state. National leaders of the offending country have openly called for military action against the state--up to and including nuclear action. The offending nation is anything but an ally of the nation whose waters have been encroached.

The country whose waters have been compromised does what ANY country would do (including the offending country if the tables are reversed) if unauthorized foreign ships (especially military ships) encroach upon its territorial waters: it seizes the vessels. The country did NOT open fire on the sailors. No one was injured. After neutralizing the perceived threat and detaining the sailors, the country provides the sailors who had illegally entered their waters with a meal and then releases them and their boats unharmed.

But instead of being grateful for the way the offended nation had prevented what could have easily escalated into international hostilities, many of the leaders and media spokesmen from the country whose ships had illegally entered another nation’s territorial waters immediately accuse the offended nation of being the “aggressor” and use the incident to further enflame hatred against the alleged enemy state--including the incitement of war against it.

Case One was Israel’s murderous attack against the USS Liberty on June 8, 1967. Case Two was Iran’s incredibly-restrained handling of the U.S. naval vessels’ illegal incursion into its territorial waters not too many days ago.

Read the true story of Israel’s attack against the USS Liberty here:

Israel’s Attack On USS Liberty – The Full Story

Read the true story of the Iran incident here:

U.S. Media Condemns Iran’s “Aggression” In Intercepting U.S. Naval Ships — In Iranian Waters

The verbal attacks against Iran by U.S. politicians and dominate news media truly staggers the imagination. I think Pat Buchanan’s response to FOX News’ Sean Hannity was perfectly stated. After listening to Hannity’s senseless rant against Iran, Pat said, “Sean, you’re hysterical.” Hysterical seems to be the word that best describes most of what we are hearing today.

See the Hannity/Buchanan exchange here:

HEROIC: Pat Buchanan Tramples Sean Hannity On Iran Nuclear Deal

During a radio interview with Michael Berry, Ron Paul rightly observed, “I think there’s a distortion of the facts, for instance, we have learned and have been conditioned to distrust and hate the Persians and they’re going to kill us, just look at the conditioning we had for Saddam Hussein who used to be an ally and we gave him his first nuclear reactor. So, there is a lot of that that goes on, but there’s no history to show that Iran are aggressive people. When was the last time they invaded a country? Over two hundred years ago.”

Read the transcript here:

Ron Paul: Iran Hasn’t Invaded Another Country For More Than 200 Years

ActivistPost.com accurately answers the question, “Is Iran a threat to the health and safety of U.S. citizens?” The report states:

“Iran has never attacked the United States, or even any of her interests overseas. In fact, they have not attacked or invaded anyone in at least 270 years. And they haven’t even threatened to harm the U.S. unless of course they are attacked first. . . . Iran is not an aggressor and certainly not a national emergency threat.”

The report goes on: “Even if they did [have a nuclear weapons program], why is that reason to attack them? Just having a weapon doesn’t make a country a threat. Plenty of countries have nuclear weapons and we don’t consider them a threat.”

The report continues: “Iran will not attack the West militarily with a nuclear weapon, or even conventionally, because they know they would be inviting their immediate destruction. Iran is a sophisticated secular society, much like Iraq was before America invaded. In fact, Iran has the third largest Jewish population in the world who live in harmony with Muslims and others. In other words, they have a lot to lose to invite war with anyone, and they know that any move viewed as aggression would be met with swift and overwhelming force. The West wants the world to believe their leadership is primitive and stupid, but they aren’t.

“Over 45 U.S. bases surround Iran. These bases are in addition to the fleets of U.S. warships parked in waters near Iran. A picture is worth a thousand words. Who’s the real threat here?”

See the map and the report here:

5 Reasons Iran Is NOT A Threat To The U.S.

Recall that even when many Arab nations were involved in the Six Day War with Israel back in 1967 (including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya, etc.), Iran did NOT participate. And what most Americans do not know is that immediately following the 9/11 attacks in the U.S. (that Iran had nothing to do with), tens of thousands of Iranian citizens held demonstrations, candlelight vigils, and moments of silence in SUPPORT of the United States. (Do the research for yourself.) Americans would be shocked to know that the vast majority of average Iranians actually hold very favorable views of the United States. The “Death to America” rallies we hear so much about actually do NOT represent the views of the vast majority of the Iranian people--no more than the copious “We Are Change” pro-Obama rallies represent the views of a majority of the American people.

Plus, the oft-quoted threat by former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to “wipe Israel off the map” is in reality a complete fabrication of the Western news media.

See this report:

“Wiped Off The Map” – The Rumor Of The Century

The Iranian Foreign Minister tried to set the record straight--albeit most in the U.S. media continue to regurgitate the myth that Iran has threatened to militarily destroy Israel.

“Iran has no intention of destroying Israel and has actually saved the Jews three times in history, but the current Israeli regime is a threat to Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has said in an interview with American media.

“Speaking with NBC, Zarif slamed [sic] the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, after he once again said in his Monday’s speech before the US Congress that Iran openly threatened to wipe Israel off the map.

“The Iranian FM urged Netanyahu to refresh his knowledge of history as his comments have not only ‘distort[ed] realities of today,’ but also go against the Bible and Jewish sacred texts.

“‘He even distorts his own scripture. If you read the book of Esther, you will see that it was the Iranian king who saved the Jews…’ Zarif said.

“The Iranian Minister called Netanyahu’s accusations ‘truly regrettable’ stressing that they refer to ‘an entire nation which has saved Jews three times.’

“‘It is truly, truly regrettable that bigotry gets to the point of making allegations against an entire nation which has saved Jews three times in its history: Once during that time of a prime minister who was trying to kill the Jews, and the king saved the Jews; again during the time of Cyrus the Great, where he saved the Jews from Babylon, and during the Second World War, where Iran saved the Jews,’ he said.

“‘We’re not about the annihilation of Jews,’ Zarif stressed, reminding the channel that 20,000 Jews reside in Iran ‘in peace’ and even have their own representative in parliament.

“‘We have a history of tolerance and cooperation and living together in coexistence with our own Jewish people, and with Jews everywhere in the world. If people want to espouse fear mongering to fan such hysteria in the world, that’s to their detriment,’ Zafir said.”

Here is the report:

​We Saved Jews 3 Times, Netanyahu Should Revise History Lessons – Iranian FM

And here is one of the most truthful and accurate assessments that I have ever read of why the U.S. is enmeshed in all of these current conflicts in the Middle East:

Christmas 2015—–Why There Is No Peace On Earth

Had Case Two referenced above even remotely resembled Case One, we would be in the middle of World War III right now. Yet, President Lyndon Johnson and the U.S. government allowed a foreign country to commit a flagrant act of military aggression against a U.S. naval vessel--killing dozens of American sailors and Marines in the process--with no repercussions whatsoever. It even chose to cover up the incident and pretend it never happened. Why? Because the attacking country was Israel--a supposed ally of the United States and a nation that our government often uses to do much of its dirty work in the Middle East. Not to mention the fact that the Israeli lobby is the most influential and wealthiest lobby in Washington, D.C.; or the fact that the false doctrine of “Christian Zionism” (what an oxymoron) literally governs the prevailing politics among a majority of America’s churches--especially the largest ones lead by politically-powerful televangelists; or that a majority of U.S. congressmen and senators are joined at the hip (and bank account) with the Israeli lobby.

In much the same way, the U.S. government has chosen to cover up the attacks that killed a U.S. ambassador and other Americans in Benghazi. Why? Because the truth surrounding Benghazi would help expose what the U.S. government is really doing in the Middle East and would implicate our government’s role in facilitating terrorists.

It’s time for Americans to start facing the cold, harsh reality that our federal government cares absolutely NOTHING about the lives of American citizens. It didn’t give a hoot in hades about the victims of the USS Liberty, and it didn’t give a hoot in hades about Ambassador Chris Stevens and the others who died in Benghazi. But let Iran (a nation that poses absolutely no imminent threat to the United States) protect its own territorial waters (with no harm to any American citizen), and the national press corps and their neocon cohorts in Washington, D.C., are ready to start World War III.

This is all political theater, folks. It’s not about protecting the United States. It’s not about protecting the American people. It’s all about protecting the government’s hidden agendas and its own derriere.

P.S. Once again, I invite readers to view my four-message DVD entitled, “The Church And Israel.” This was our most popular sermon DVD of 2015. The titles of the four messages (on one DVD) are:
*The Presentation and Rejection of The King
*“An High Priest For Ever After The Order of Melchisedec”
*Jesus: The Seed Of David, The Seed Of Abraham
*Christ’s Last Words To Israel

This four sermon DVD is available here:
The Church And Israel DVD
© Chuck Baldwin

Are the US Elites Attempting to Destroy Europe by Triggering A Flood of Immigrants and Refugees?

By Robert Bridge
Global Research, January 20, 2016
Russia Insider 20 December 2015
A side effect of the American neocon strategy of up-ending the Middle East is to flood Europe, and in particular, Germany, the continent’s dominant power, with non-Christian immigrants.

The author argues that this is deliberate, and that Merkel and Obama are neocon patsies, leading Europe to destruction, and that Russia is one of the few countries whose leadership understands what is happening, and is fighting back.

A few years ago, views like these would be considered on the fringe. Today they are going mainstream. Witness the popularity of Donald Trump.

From the United States to Europe, the Western elite are allowing a massive influx of foreigners to enter their lands, radically transforming the face of Western societies in a bid to divide, conquer and expand their military and financial rule across an unsuspecting planet.

Angela Merkel was even named Time’s “Person of the Year” for spearheading the influx which threatens to tear Europe apart.

Despite the media-generated characterization of Europe as only too willing to allow swarms of refugees into their conservative societies, recent history provides us with an altogether different picture. As early as 2010, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in response to rising anti-immigrant sentiment, sent shockwaves around the world when she admitted that efforts to create a multicultural society in Germany have “utterly failed.”

Today, Merkel is humming a completely different tune as a wave of refugees storms Europe from all corners. Trusting the public’s short memory span, the German leader has put out the welcome mat along her country’s lengthy border, telling the world Germany is ready to accept over 1 million new arrivals – and on practically the same day that 130 people were killed by alleged Islamic fundamentalists around Paris.

Part of the public’s change of heart towards the plight of refugees came from the tragic story of Aylan Kurdis, the Syrian child whose body was found washed up along a shoreline in Turkey after the boat he had been traveling in capsized. Of course, the corporate-owned, super-consolidated media, never one to ignore a tragic moment (and especially one with graphic photographs) posted the story on every newspaper frontpage across Europe. Indeed, these were the same Western newspapers that ignored the depravations brought to children around the Middle East from NATO attacks on sovereign countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now in Syria. One need only read the subtitle that accompanied The Sun’s front page headline, which said: “Bomb Syria for Aylan.” Talk about using tragedy to sell the ugliest agenda of them all: War.

So while the European people are being coerced by a relentless media campaign to accept Syrian refugees or be labeled neo-fascists (a word few Germans can tolerate following the harrowing memory of Nazi Germany, a memory the media will never let the German people live down), the refugees are being magnetically drawn to Europe by the promise of easy money and easy jobs. Note: it has been proven that most of the new arrivals to Europe are not from Syria, but rather from other war-torn places, like Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.

Refugees in Germany receive up to 345 euro per month from the government, whereas in Sweden the monthly allowance is up to 224 euro. Compared to the places and situations where the refugees are escaping from, this temptation of free money is practically impossible to ignore.

Was this chaos planned?

While on the surface it may seem that the refugee crisis has taken Western leaders by surprise, in fact it is all part of their plan for global domination, which was outlined in a paper by the now-defunct group of US neoconservatives known as The Project for a New American Century (PNAC).

In September 2000, the group released a document entitled: ‘Rebuilding America’s Defenses – Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century,’ in which the power-crazed individuals came out and admitted their goal of asserting US military power around the globe in order to remain the world’s supreme superpower.

The PNAC identified five nations it deems as “deeply hostile to America” – North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria (former US General Wesley Clark added another three to that list a bit later: Lebanon, Somalia and Sudan). It should come as no surprise that two of these five countries have already suffered a US-led occupation/capitulation, while Syria is still managing to survive, albeit only due to the military intervention of Russia.

Moscow seems to have come to the correct conclusion that Islamic State is simply a proxy army created by the United States to smash down the doors of sovereign states.

Judging by the scope of these diabolical plans, it is altogether impossible that the United States could not see well in advance that a flood of desperate refugees would soon be streaming towards the European Union in search of safety.

But again, this is part of the overall plan that the US elite desire, otherwise they would not be so aggressively pushing for the rights of the illegal aliens over the rights of their natural born citizens.

This makes sense when we consider the absolute wreck that the Western elite have made of the European economy, with nations like Greece, Italy, Portugal and others on the brink of total insolvency, and only surviving due to impossible-to-return loans pushed on them by the IMF and World Bank.

There is the temptation to point to the colorful life story of Barack Hussein Obama – America’s first black president of Kenyan descent who is known to hold strong opinions on the way minorities have been treated present and past – as a powerful reason for national borders collapsing around the world, and most shockingly in the United States and the European Union. Indeed, the real estate tycoon Donald Trump has practically sealed his nomination for the Republican presidential candidacy on nothing more than the promise to build a “gigantic wall” separating America and Mexico. So why doesn’t Obama make an equally simple promise and shut down the Trump threat once and for all?

Although I do believe that Obama is predisposed by both his skin color and life history to show sympathy to the plight of refugees and minorities, and is thereby less inclined to shut down America’s borders, I don’t think the US president’s race can explain everything (although it has a wonderful way of scaring off any would-be critics out of fear of being branded ‘racist’). The simple fact is that Obama is reading from a script that was written many years ago. Washington is simply weighed down by too many powerful, behind-the-scenes puppet masters for anything to happen by chance in the realm of US politics.

According to a German sociologist Gunnar Heinsohn, by mid-21st century millions of migrants from Africa and Asia (950 million of them are already willing to relocate to the EU) will drag Europe back into the Dark Ages. So isn’t this exactly what Barack Obama, a man with African roots, should be willing to achieve through his foreign policy?

We would be amiss to singularly blame Obama for destroying the once proud European civilization (now hanging by a thread in a few stubborn holdouts, like Russia, Hungary and Belorussia). The blame must be placed on the very malevolent system that every American leader is forced to either accept or fight once in the Oval Office (John F. Kennedy is perhaps the best proof as to what will happen to any US leader who attempts to be his own man and demand real change.

We can no longer allow ourselves to be deluded as to what is really happening in the world today. The United States is actively and intentionally destroying the old fabric of nationality – the very glue that holds together cultures and civilizations – around the world, and it does not matter if the state is friend or foe, Christian or Muslim, rich or poor.

The ultimate plan is to smash any homogeneity that exists and replace it with a US-led imperial system that relies on brute force to maintain “peace and order.”

This is much easier achieved if people no longer have anything remotely in common with their neighbors. The microcosm of this demonic system is already playing out on Main Street, USA, where local police forces are actually receiving military-grade weapons to use against the American people – while our national borders remain open to killers, rapists and drug traffickers from South America (!).

In Europe, the very same tragedy is playing out like a cold-blooded murder in broad daylight. Thanks to America’s reckless foreign policy agenda, which went absolutely insane following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, NATO countries are being helplessly dragged into battles and regardless of the public outcry and protests against these illegal wars, which have already happened in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and now Syria – all of which have resulted – or soon will result – in failed states.

But the real failed states will eventually be the old colonial powers of Europe, which sit on the front line of the refugee tsunami provoked by the US that is now crashing across the region, threatening to engulf every city from Lisbon to Helsinki.

This development only plays further into Washington’s hands as the European people – increasingly terrified by pre-planned acts of war, terrorism and financial collapse – look to a savior to rescue them. At that point, they will walk happily and blindly into captivity like lambs on the way to slaughter, believing they are free until the moment of their destruction.

In other words, when it is too late to reverse their fate and the real face of the global tyrant is revealed.

The original source of this article is Russia Insider

Peddling Fiction…?

Dear CIGAs,

“Peddling fiction” …this is what Mr. Obama said of anyone who believes and says the U.S. has a weak economy. How ironic he should say this when he did, the State of the Union address? I mean the timing could not have been any better! In a week where oil prices hit a 14 year low, freight rates at over 30 year lows, equity, credit and FOREX markets all over the world crashing and derivatives blowing up. How do we know derivatives are blowing up? Simply because the Dallas Fed has given their banks permission not to mark energy debt to market. In essence, the Fed has instructed their banks TO PEDDLE FICTION!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-16/exclusive-dallas-fed-quietly-suspends-energy-mark-market-tells-banks-not-force-shale

One must ask the question(s), how can the Fed really do this as accounting firms must sign off on any audits or official financial reports? Do the accounting firms also get “special waivers” to lie or as our fearless leader says “peddle fiction”? Also, how can the Fed really do this with a straight face? Did they really believe the markets would not sniff this out?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-17/us-bank-counterparty-risk-soars-after-energy-mtm-debacle

Just as I was about to send this post out, the Dallas Fed responded to Zerohedge and said they did not “issue such guidance to banks”, the follow up story is here http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-18/fed-responds-zero-hedge-here-are-some-follow-questions I personally hope this is true as “reality” will be pulled forward, …one can hope!

Now, we await to hear individual names of “who” is in trouble. We have already seen Glencore and other commodity trading group bonds collapse. The credit markets have already discovered Citi and Wells Fargo have just “non” reserved for almost no losses in their energy portfolio. Is this credible? Somewhere $500 billion and $1 trillion has been lent into the energy industry over the last 30 months …with probably a minimum expected oil price of $70, is ANYONE profitable at $29? The rubber will surely meet the road in this market!

While on the subject of fictional accounting, foreign central banks have off loaded some $1 trillion worth of “reserves”, specifically U.S. Treasury securities. There is only one problem with this, there has been no accounting anywhere publicly on the other side of these trades. Who bought these Treasuries to provide the cash? Where are they accounted for? Most probably the ONLY place where this size transaction could be done in the darkness of night would be the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund chartered in the 1930′s). For $1 trillion worth of securities to go unaccounted is not small potatoes, the only other such “misplacement” was back in Sept. 2001 when it turned out the military could not account for $2.3 trillion but that was overshadowed the following day with the “other” news.

As for peddling fiction, if the BLS used the “old fashioned” unemployment numbers (U-6) they used to report, the U.S. would have 9.9% unemployment. If they decided to go entirely non fiction the number according to John Williams is 23%! In a nation of 330 million, we have 94 million “no longer in the work force” and 46 million unable to feed themselves …30% and 15% respectively. Are these 94 million, independently wealthy and do not need work? If we were living in a day of still photographs and radios, the food lines could mostly be hidden. Since we live in a world where everything you do is recorded, these “food lines” are erased by EBT transfer payments …problem solved (at least publicly)!

A little off subject but how about the timing of the Iran deal? They are now allowed to sell oil at what Wall Street has already called “bottom”? Are we now looking for another, future bottom? Also, they now get their hands on somewhere near $150 billion in previously tied up funds. What will happen to the institutions who will need to credit these funds and forward to Eastern institutions? Another question, one many have simply laughed off as not doable …what if Iran took a “small” amount, say $10 billion and bought gold with it? What if they had a “crazy” (and angry) man at the helm and decided to take those funds and bid for every gold ounce for sale on the planet? Might this be a financial nuclear bomb …? I am not saying they will do anything other than tend to their own business with these funds, what I AM saying is, we just handed them a very big and very loaded financial gun!

Folks, it is what it is and the global margin call is being issued with no hope of it being met. The real economy is now contracting with a financial economy more leveraged and in debt than ever before under any measurement. “Less income and less cash flow to service more debt than in all of history” … this is not fiction, it is stark reality. Now, we must watch to see what the responses will be as the markets overwhelm all plunge protection teams, central banks and sovereign treasuries. In plain street language, the markets are now far larger and far more disorderly than the smoke, mirrors, lies and abilities of the financial puppeteers to handle.

We will shortly be hearing individual “names” as we did back in 2008. Names like Fannie and Freddy, Lehman and Merrill, Citi and AIG. Once you begin to hear “names”, we will be very close to the plug being pulled on markets. When you hear individual names it will be like blood in the shark infested waters of the speculators. These names will be attacked to the death. Counterparty risk will be back, first and foremost in decision making, NO ONE will be trusted. Credit markets will begin (they already are) to seize up and the only “policy option” will be to unplug the computers! I wish it were all fiction!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration

Why The World Needs Rand Paul

Lee Enochs — November 22, 2015
Dear America,

I wanted to depart from my normal way of reporting today. Usually I will focus on a current person, issue or event that is currently relevant to the political realm in the United States.

On most days, I write on some hot button issue that many people are talking about in the news and contemporary culture and try to interpret and comment on the news from a distinctly Libertarian and conservative political perspective. My work is usually a hybrid combination of political commentary and current events news reporting.

Yet, today I would like to do something entirely different than my normative mode of operation and paint a picture for you with different brush strokes upon the canvas and mosaic of political discourse in America.

Today, I would like to present to you a broader and more philosophical reason why I believe the world needs Rand Paul. Yes, I believe that Senator Rand Paul is so unique in his political perspective that the entire world could benefit from Rand Paul’s refreshing, unique and innovative fresh take on politics and the economy.

Rand Paul’s uniqueness and conveyor of bold ideas gave impetus to the normally very liberal TIME Magazine to feature Rand Paul on its cover under the title, “The Most Interesting Man in Politics.”

Yes, at the risk of sounding too bold and partisan, I do want to convey that the world needs Rand Paul whether or not he wins the Republican nomination and ultimately becomes our next President or not. The world needs Rand Paul precisely because it does not think it needs a man like Rand Paul in office.

Yet, if the media and the American people would turn their collective gaze away from celebrity and gimmicky candidates such as Donald Trump and Ben Carson and assess who is actually giving the most compelling answers to America’s most important political and economic questions, they would see that Rand Paul has the most thorough and substantive answers.

The world needs Rand Paul precisely at this time because for the first time in our lives there has arisen upon America’s political landscape, a viable candidate for President that is diametrically and philosophically different than any other candidate in American history.

Unlike any other major candidate in the storied annals of American political discourse, Rand Paul stands apart with an innovative vision of independence from Washington’s big government values and practices. While other Republican candidates have talked about decreasing the size of our federal government and its soul crushing massive bureaucracy, almost no Republican politician means what he or she says and their actions demonstrate an entirely different thing.

Case in point, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush claimed to be “small government” conservatives, both Reagan and Bush the younger were among the most wasteful big spending Presidents in history. Both Reagan and Bush increased the size of government and the national debt in incomprehensible and shocking ways that were diametrically different than their small government rhetoric.

Rand Paul is needed in the world today because the stale and tired old ways of the ever expanding federal government are just not working. Everyone admits that our political system is broken and needs fundamental and systemic change.

Rand Paul is the bold and innovative agent of change in a collapsing and bankrupt system that has now plunged America into near catastrophic economic ruin by increasing the national debt to close to $19 trillion dollars.

The world needs Rand Paul whether he is the Republican nominee or not, since Senator Paul’s vision of a nation of self-reliant citizen patriots recalls the bold vision of our founding fathers. Rand Paul vision for America is radically antithetical of FDR and LBJ’s “New Deal” and “Great Society” legislation that has for generations made millions of Americans utterly dependent on the federal government to meet their most basic of needs.

Rand Paul’s vision is to free America from its dependence on Washington and its entitlement programs. Rand Paul wants to defeat the steely beast that is the Washington machine and he wants to release the American dream. Rand Paul’s bold and innovative vision for all Americans is that they be the last and best arbiters of their own personal and economic destinies. When we trust in ourselves and not the federal government to meet our needs and goals in life, we achieve true liberty.

Rand Paul is needed now more than ever before because Rand wants to free a generation of Americans from dependence and interdependence upon the federal government in order that we the people are the primary agents of our own economic prosperity.

The world needs Rand Paul because far too many people have given up on the American dream and have settled for a federal government that has its hand in almost every essential part of our economic and private lives. Rand Paul wants to free you and me from dependence upon government that America can once more be the city set on a hill that all nations can admire near and far.

The world needs Rand Paul because we all need to be set free from the federal government’s intrusive overreach into our personal, economic and private lives. I believe America stands at a crossroads and the choice laid before us today is life and death, freedom or slavery.

We you continue to be a slave to the state or will you be free? Vote for Rand Paul and be free! I have written this from the heart, that this one nation under God would return back to its Constitution and vision of its founding fathers that this nation of the people, for the people and by the people should not perish from the earth.

THE END OF THE MIDDLE CLASS IN THE UNITED STATES

America is under the full control of the major financial, military-industrial and energy giants
Vladimir Platov | NEO Journal - JANUARY 14, 2016
Over the past month, many US media publications have been sounding the alarm: death of the middle class of America and the end of the “American Dream”.
According to the independent American portal – “End Of American Dream”, one of the main reasons for this is that the rate of the cost of living increase in the United States is higher than the growth of wages. In particular, the cost increase for food, rent, health insurance, and therefore the number of the “working poor” in the country is increasing exponentially every year. However, the current US authorities do not care about the decline of the middle class, which once supported the country.
middle-class-quote-embedFor example, health insurance premiums have been increasing 3 times faster than the federal officials say, and in 2016, across the whole country, an increase of 20.3% in these payments is expected, which would affect millions of families. Since July 2012, the food price index rose from 73 to 162 kinds of products. Today, 47 million Americans live in poverty, every fifth child in America is issued food stamps, 1.5 American families live on less than $US 2 a day, and each year 46 million Americans use the services of food banks.
In these circumstances, the future does not look very bright for the “ordinary hard-working Americans”, since a large number of Americans, previously considered as a part of the middle class, are losing their jobs and homes. Homelessness and complete impoverishment have become a real prospect in the life of the middle-class, and with its disappearance – the death of the “American dream”.

According to The Social Security Administration, a half of Americans earn less than the minimum subsistence level ($US16.87 per hour), i.e. less than $US 30 thousand per year. However, this level of revenue, as estimated by the “Alliance for a Just Society”, is not enough to achieve an adequate but modest standard of living, even with two workers in a family of four people. It was found that for every job created in the United States there are seven candidates, so $US 15 per hour payment is only enough for one person to barely make ends meet.
Another study – Go Banking Rates – found that nearly half of Americans do not have any savings, while more than 70% have less than a $US 1,000 savings. This conclusion is confirmed by the statistics of “The Pew Research Center”, according to which almost half of American families spend more than they earn. Lack of savings especially affects young adult Americans whose savings after the recession are now showing negative values. The Wall Street Journal explicitly states that 62% of Americans do not have even $US 500 for emergency repair of their vehicle, and the US Federal Reserve survey found that almost half of the respondents are not able to cover extraordinary expenses in the amount of $US 400.
Although American officials say that the official unemployment rate is 5%, in fact it is 10%, if the short-term unemployed are taken into account, and 23%, if the long-term ones are taken into account. Between 2007 and 2013, the average welfare has dropped by 40%, leaving the poorest half of Americans with adverse levels of personal wealth, subject to deeper debt relief. Thus, the once strong middle class of America has fallen to a level below average and continues to fall, and half of America lives next to the line, beyond which the actual poverty begins.
The business publication Financial Times calls the latest data on the financial troubles of American families the witness to the collapse of the middle class in the US, because one out of five American adults is currently living at the risk of poverty. Since the global financial crisis, 5.7 million joined the ranks of Americans with the lowest incomes in the country. More than 45% of them, or 2.5 million adults were added to the ranks of people with the lowest incomes after 2011, i.e. even after the recession supposedly ended.
Noting the slow death of the “American Dream”, a number of American observers recalled that until recently middle-class families accounted for 62% of total revenues in the United States. Today, that figure has dropped to 43%.
Over the years, the middle class of America has been steadily declining. Its income, equity, the number of jobs have been steadily declining, and only the cost of living is rising. Now, as a result of all these factors, more Americans live in poverty than ever before, and there is no change for the better.
Since 1971, the middle class has contracted from 61% to 50%. Wealthy Americans are increasing their wealth at a much faster rate than the middle and lower socio-economic groups. According to the national statistics study by The Pew Research Center, the average income of the richest Americans between 1971 and 2014 soared by 47%.
The current social situation in the United States suggests that America is under the full control of the major financial, military-industrial and energy giants that fully control the course of the political process – something most people do not realize. This control over the political process determines the way things go. For the sake of these endeavors, new laws, regulations and requirements are issued and their performance monitored, whereby the US government merely guarantees the exercise of these interests. Illegal wars and occupations, including the fabricated “war on terror” are only disturbing, they interfere with the prevention of the closure of American workplaces; solving the problem of students debt in the amount of more than one trillion dollars; the lack of universal health care and free medical assistance to the needy; the crisis of affordable housing, etc. That is why the liberal news portal – Opednews.com – states that the American people are held hostage to the country’s corrupt political and economic system, and US citizens should get their country back – take it away from the oligarchs and officials.
As noted by one of the ideologists of the American conservatism, politician and journalist Patrick Buchanan in the column for the publication of The American Conservative, the end of the era of great national projects in the United States, has dealt the most painful blow to the middle class of the country. The US Federal budget of $US 4 trillion has faced a consistent deficit of $US 1 trillion for four consecutive years. To balance the budget, defense spending and other social programs would have to be cut.
Under these circumstances, Patrick Buchanan has raised pertinent questions: How long will the United States allow spending more than the next, successive ten countries taken together? How long will the United States continue to protect dozens of countries halfway around the world from America? How many more wars, at the cost of trillions of borrowed dollars, such as Iraq and Afghanistan, will the United States continue to support?
In the meantime, while the White House does not respond to these questions, the middle class of America, and with it the “American Dream”, is facing gradual destruction…

Open Letter to State Legislators Everywhere: The Other Side of the Article V Convention Issue

Publius Huldah November 12, 2015

If there is an Article V convention, we will lose the Constitution we have, and another Constitution will be imposed.
You are not getting both sides of this issue. Throughout the Country, those of us who are warning of the dangers of an Article V convention are marginalized, ridiculed, smeared, shut out of meetings, and barred from speaking in public forums. THIS short essay from the Principled Policy Blog describes what we face every day.
THIS article is an account by Donny Harwood, a Citizen of Tennessee, describing how he was shut out of the public meeting which the Convention of States people held on October 19, 2015 at the Millennium Maxwell House Hotel in Nashville, Tennessee. According to The Leaf-Chronicle, a number of Tennessee Legislators were at the meeting. A prominent Tennessee radio talk show host was also present.
And everyone at the meeting was prevented from hearing the other side of this issue.
The reason convention proponents forbid dissenting voices is that we prove, by means of Facts and original source documents, that the claims and promises of the convention proponents are false. HERE are some of the original source documents Legislators would hear about if they were presented with the other side of this issue.
We are in the final stage of a takeover. Leftists of every variety want a new Constitution to legalize our transformation from the constitutional Republic created by our existing Constitution to a dictatorship.

To get a new Constitution, they need a convention. So they are telling conservatives that our Constitution is causing our problems and we need to amend the Constitution. And they say we can only make the amendments they say we need at a convention.
Article V of our Constitution provides two methods of amending our Constitution. Congress:
Proposes amendments, or
Calls a convention to propose amendments if 34 States apply for it.
The first method was used for our existing 27 amendments: Congress proposed them and sent them to the States for ratification or rejection.
Under the second method, Congress calls a convention. We have never had a convention under Article V. Such conventions are extremely dangerous. THIS is one of many articles which illustrate the danger, sets forth warnings from two of our Framers and two former US Supreme Court Justices, and explains why Delegates to a convention can NOT be controlled by State laws.
National conventions are dangerous because the Delegates have the plenipotentiary power to impose a new Constitution with a new mode of ratification. The video by Chuck Michaelis at the bottom of THIS page explains these plenipotentiary powers. Such Delegates are the Sovereign Representatives of The People and have the power to impose a new Constitution. This has already happened in our history:
At the Federal Convention of 1787, this plenipotentiary power was exercised to replace our first Constitution, the Articles of Confederation, with the Constitution we now have. On February 21, 1787, The Continental Congress called a convention "for the sole and express purpose of revising the Articles of Confederation". But instead of proposing amendments to our first Constitution, the Delegates wrote a new Constitution - the one we now have.
Furthermore, the new Constitution had a new and easier mode of ratification: Article XIII of The Articles of Confederation (p 8-9) provided that Amendments to the Articles had to be approved by the Continental Congress and all of the then 13 States. But the new Constitution, drafted at the "amendments" convention of 1787, provided at Art. VII thereof that it would be ratified upon approval by only nine of the then existing 13 States.
So! Not only do Delegates to a national convention have this plenipotentiary power to impose a new Constitution; the precedent to do so has already been established.
The Left has been pushing for a convention for 50 years - ever since the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations produced the Constitution for the Newstates of America. They need a convention to get it imposed.
Several other Constitutions are already prepared and waiting for a convention.
If there is a convention, the only issues will be (1) whose Constitution will be imposed by the Delegates; and (2) what new mode of ratification will be set forth in the new Constitution.
The Constitution for the Newstates of America imposes a totalitarian dictatorship. Article XII, § 1 thereof provides for ratification by a Referendum called by the President. The States are dissolved and replaced by regional governments answerable to the new national government.
The Revolutionary Communist Party USA has a Constitution for The New Socialist Republic in North America.
George Soros, Marxist law professors all over the Country, Cass Sunstein and Eric Holder want a Marxist Constitution in place by the year 2020.
The "Convention of States" project wants a "re-written" Constitution which legalizes powers the federal government has already usurped, and delegates new powers to the federal government such as total power over children. Yet they are telling conservatives that they want a convention so they can get amendments "to limit the power and jurisdiction of the federal government"!

Under the planned North American Union, Canada, the United States, and Mexico will surrender their sovereignty to a Parliament set over the three countries. The United States will need a new Constitution to transform us from a sovereign nation to a member state of the North American Union. This is what the Establishment wants. And it is being imposed on us by stealth. Read the Task Force Report of the Council on Foreign Relations HERE. And to see how the European Union is working out for the formerly sovereign nations of Europe, watch this 7.5 minute video by Pat Condell.
In the past, conservatives defeated the periodic pushes for a convention. So the Left changed tactics: Now, they are marketing it to appeal to conservatives: they are telling conservatives that a convention is the only way to rein in the federal government. These leftists, some wearing conservatives' clothing, are using the classic techniques of the Left: They are not telling the truth; they are smearing their opponents; and they have divided conservatives. Conservatives who fell for the marketing have been induced to attack and exclude conservatives who are warning of the dangers of a convention. And they won't let us address their groups.
Our existing Constitution really was a 5,000 year miracle. We delegated only a handful of enumerated powers to the federal government – you can see what we delegated HERE. Our Constitution doesn't need "fixing" – we need to restore the Constitution we already have. We begin the Restoration by reading and learning our Constitution and Declaration of Independence. And enforcing it! See, in this regard, the Tenth Amendment Center's 2015 State of the Nullification Movement Report.
For the Love of God and Country, heed this warning.
Very truly yours,
Publius Huldah

Read more at http://freedomoutpost.com/2015/11/open-letter-to-state-legislators-everywhere-the-other-side-of-the-article-v-convention-issue/#JRHQdZdt84csULmg.99

Internal War Is Now On The Horizon For America

Wednesday, 06 January 2016 Brandon Smith
If internationalists were to get their way fully with the world and future historians write their analysis from a globalist perspective of the defunct American nation, they will probably say simply that our collapse was brought about by our own incompetence - that we were our own worst enemy. Yes, they would treat America as a cliché. They will of course leave out the destructive influences and engineered disasters of elitists, that would just complicate the narrative.

My hope is that we do not prove these future historians correct, and that they won’t have an opportunity to exist. My work has always been designed to help ensure that resistance thrives, but also that it is pursued in the most intelligent manner possible.

As I write this, China’s stock market has crashed 7% and was shut down by Chinese authorities who are once again initiating outright intervention to stem the tide. U.S. markets are quickly tracking lower. Oil is plummeting.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have turned ugly, with Iranian protesters overtaking the Saudi embassy and both sides vowing vengeance. Many Americans won’t care much about this because they think it has nothing to do with them. They don’t realize that Saudi Arabia has already publicly suggested a depeg from the U.S. dollar, effectively ending the decades-long relationship between the greenback and oil. The Iranian event and U.S. ties to both nations only make the fall of the dollar’s petro-status more likely in the near term. With the U.S. in the middle, "taking a side" will be a demand. I believe the U.S. government will NOT take a side, and this will elicit a furious response from Saudi Arabia (a currency depeg).

The Obama Administration has just made introductory announcements on new gun control measures through executive order. These announcements were rather light on details and heavy on crocodile tears. Their vagueness is clearly deliberate. Psychological evaluations, redefining who is a lawful firearms dealer, "expanding" background checks; all of these measures could be interpreted broadly to mean almost anything. We will probably know more in the coming weeks.

And in Oregon over the weekend, Ammon Bundy and friends lured hundreds of protesters under false pretenses using the Hammond family tragedy as a vehicle to then initiate a takeover of federal buildings that have no strategic or symbolic value, boxing themselves into a static position and proclaiming themselves to be the “tip of the spear” in the fight against corrupt government. In the meantime, anyone who questions the validity of this idea or the logic behind the “plan” is immediately labeled a coward and “keyboard warrior” by their supporters. Emotionally manipulative arguments abound because there are no tactically rational arguments to be made, which tells me that the plan was doomed before it was implemented.

As I wrote in my article “Oregon standoff a terrible plan that we might be stuck with,” some people (not many but some) in the liberty movement are desperately clamoring for a fight; and they don’t care if the circumstances are intelligently executed or idiotically executed. They only care if it kicks off.

I openly supported and aided the efforts at Bundy Ranch because the ranchers were defending their home from clear federal aggression. The Feds were direct invaders in that scenario. In Oregon, protesters are being perceived as the invaders, not the defenders — and all launched in the name of the Hammond family, who asked them NOT to artificially create a standoff. The two scenarios are polar opposites, and Oregon will end in a very different fashion.

I would just like to note that the Founding Fathers were smart enough to avoid deliberately trapping themselves in static positions on land that had no strategic or symbolic importance while inviting the British to "come and get them". Again, there are right ways and wrong ways to fight tyranny. Simply being willing to fight is not enough.

Now, if Americans are going to create standoff situations that could result in civil war they should do it over draconian gun control measures such as the use of classified government watch lists as grounds for denial of 2nd Amendment rights, rather than using a family who did not want armed support to begin with as a means to an end.

Keep in mind that watch lists are entirely arbitrary. There is no due process involved whatsoever, meaning you or I could walk into a gun store one day only to have our 4473 form denied because some bureaucrat in an office in D.C. decided we said something he doesn’t like and belong on a naughty list. The changing of gun dealer laws could be used to erase gun shows and private sales of firearms as well.

A standoff scenario based on these issues would be a much more practical concept than what is taking place in Oregon.

As our situation in this country becomes more precarious, there are going to be far more flashpoints than anyone will be able to keep track of. It is inevitable that a fight between corrupt elements of the U.S. government and regular people will erupt. I and other analysts have been warning people about this for years. I have been educating people on their preparedness options and tactical resources. I have been promoting community preparedness teams in my work with Oath Keepers and helping to organize such teams in my own part of the country. I even designed the first working thermal evasion suit available to civilians to give people half a chance against advanced weaponry. I have no illusions that a peaceful solution exists. I know that there is no such solution at this point in the game. But when the fighting starts, I also know that those who navigate the storm intelligently rather than allowing their emotions to get the best of them are more likely to survive and succeed.

I cannot say how quickly a crisis will develop. But, I can outline some of the many pitfalls you are going to come across as this storm rises.

False Leadership And Irrational Leadership

You are going to stumble across numerous gung ho activists and even politicians who will claim they have the one and only solution, that they are the real “tip of the spear.” First, if you feel compelled to seek out leaders on the mere basis that they have offered to lead you, then you need to do some soul searching. Become your own leader first. And then, if you meet someone with an excellent plan and a principled motive, give him the time of day, but don’t jump blindly into any situation.

If his plan seems poorly thought out, don’t follow him. If his agenda revolves around his own ego and a desire for personal glory, don’t follow him. If he focuses completely on the Obama administration and ignores the complicity of Republican leadership, don’t follow him. If all he talks about are the evils of the federal government but he ignores the puppet strings that lead to international banks and globalist organizations, don’t follow him. If he refuses to allow his initiatives to be questioned or discussed in a reasonable way, do not follow him. If he acts as if his ideas are sacrosanct and questions your “patriotism” when you do not immediately jump on the bandwagon, do not follow him. Remember, it is the job of this leadership to CONVINCE YOU of the legitimacy of their plan if they are seeking your support. The burden of evidence is on them. It is not your job to support them blindly just because you want to avoid being called a "sunshine patriot".

To summarize, if you are going to follow someone, know him well first, and make sure his planning is solid.

Hotheads And Imbeciles

I’ve found that there are two very frustrating extremes within the liberty movement: the people who embrace pacifism and who refuse to even consider the possibility of a violent conflict and self-defense, and the people who have delusions of being the next George Washington and are ready to dive headlong into any violent confrontation without thinking because they want to cement their own legacy. Neither of these groups seems to be able to treat each event as unique: some events requiring a diplomatic approach and some of them requiring the violence of action.

The pacifists are annoying, but they mostly hurt themselves in their lack of preparedness and a warrior’s mindset. The hotheads are the real problem. If you are only looking for a fight, then one will certainly find you; but any moron can trigger a standoff with the Feds. The point is to be able to make a move that matters in the long run. Hotheads cannot think beyond themselves and their immediate needs. They are like mosquitoes mindlessly hunting for blood. Strategic planning is impossible for them and they will destroy allies in the process of their pursuits.

I hate to say it, but there is a distinct possibility that our current generation of freedom advocates and freedom fighters may not live to see the future we are working toward. That better world built on liberty, individualism and voluntary community is something our children will thrive in, not us. If you are not fighting with a long term strategy in mind, then you have missed the entire point.

Factions And Tribes

Humans in crisis events tend to become more tribal in their associations in order to survive, and this is not necessarily a bad thing. I would rather live in a tribal world than under centralized corrupt government or global government any day. That said, if a “tribe” or faction does not respect the rights of the individual or uses unprovoked violence to achieve its goals, then it is no better than any other tyranny. Never trade safety for tyranny, regardless of the difficulties ahead.

The upside is tyrants of small tribes are easier to deal with than tyrants of large nations. They are no more bulletproof than anyone else, and they don’t have the resources to prevent reprisal if they hurt the wrong people.

Expect that families, neighborhoods, towns, churches, gangs and activist groups will rally around each other as a way to provide security. If you do not already have friends and family on board with your way of thinking, you will be isolated, making survival far more difficult if a breakdown does occur.

Governments Will Not Disappear

I can think of very few scenarios in history in which a crisis or collapse immediately facilitated the fall of the government in power. Rather, the government usually morphs into something else, something more dangerous. In fact, crisis is often the prime excuse used by corrupt officials to rationalize greater controls on the population. This in turn acts as a catalyst for more rebellion, which in turn acts as a vindication of the government’s tyranny.

Does this mean people should not rebel against tyranny? No, it means that we have to fight smart and retain the moral high ground at all times. We must act in a way that exposes the true nature of corrupt government, rather than giving them more ammunition to shoot us down with in the public eye. Above all, if we fight we must fight TO WIN. This means not deliberately searching for an Alamo. Martyrs are ultimately useless in this kind of war because if we lose, no one will remember them anyway. Glory seekers and self-proclaimed prophets will only lead people to disaster.

Develop a tactical mindset because the future will require tactical minds. Maintain your principles no matter the threats ahead. Retain your humanity. But also, when the fight begins, fight with the intention of victory. Choose your ground wisely.

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You can contact Brandon Smith at:

brandon@alt-market.com

Bill Gross Warns Of Demographic Doomsday

"It’s a wonderful life for the 1% and a Xanax existence for the 99," Bill Gross says, bemoaning the pacification of the masses that the (former) bond king likens to "a day at the Coliseum" for Plebian citizens and "cake" for the French Bourgeoisie.

But while the myriad creature comforts available to a society that's more interested in "Fantasy Sports, cellphone game apps, sexting, and fast food" than it is with the fact that "half of the U.S. population doesn’t go to work in the morning [or] that real wages after conservatively calculated inflation have barely budged since the mid 1980’s," may serve to keep the populace in a state of perpetual stupor thus forestalling an inevitable revolt by both the proletariat and the elite, demographic realities are set to make the "next few decades" difficult - even for an American electorate drunk on Xanax.

* * *

"It's A Xanax World," by Bill Gross

The Romans gave their Plebian citizens a day at the Coliseum, and the French royalty gave the Bourgeoisie a piece of figurative “cake”, so it may be true to form that in the still prosperous developed economies of 2016, we provide Fantasy Sports, cellphone game apps, sexting, and fast food to appease the masses. Keep them occupied and distracted at all costs before they recognize that half of the U.S. population doesn’t go to work in the morning and that their real wages after conservatively calculated inflation have barely budged since the mid 1980’s. Confuse them with demagogic and religious oriented political candidates to believe that tomorrow will be a better day and hope that Ferguson, Missouri and its lookalikes will fade to the second page or whatever it’s called these days in new-age media.

Meanwhile, manipulate prices of interest rates and stocks to benefit corporations and the wealthy while they feast on exorbitantly priced gluten-free pasta and range-free chicken at Whole Foods, or if even more fortunate, pursue high rise New York condos and private jets at Teterboro. It’s a wonderful life for the 1% and a Xanax existence for the 99. But who’s looking – or counting – even at the ballot box. November 2016 will not change a thing – 8 years of Hillary or 8 years of a non-Hillary. Same difference. Central bankers, Superpacs, and K street lobbyists are in control. Instead of cake, the 49.5% (males) will just have to chomp on their Carl’s Jr. hamburger and dream of a night with 23-year-old Kate Upton lookalikes that show them how to eat it during Super Bowl commercials. And if that’s too sexist, then Carl’s is substituting six-pack hunks instead of full-breasted models to appease the other 49.5% (females). It’s a Xanax society. We love it.

But I kid my readers – (that’s what comedians say on TV when they approach an edge). Kidding aside, however, if the 99 think they’ve got it good (bad) now, just wait 10 or 20 more years until their bills really come due. Of course by then, the 1% likely won’t be doing so well either, but there’s the hope that each and every one of them (us/me) can sell before the deluge. I speak specifically though to liabilities associated with the Boomer generation: healthcare, private pensions, Social Security and the unestimable costs of global warming, but let me leave the warming of the planet out of it for now. Let me try to convince you with some hard, cold facts, many of which are U.S. oriented but which apply as well to much of the developed world, because we’re mostly all getting older together. Demography rules.

Explaining this demographic countdown requires an impolitic concession that the world’s population is gradually aging, some at a faster rate than others (Japan, Italy, Taiwan!) but mostly in developed vs. undeveloped countries. And it is the elderly that require more services and expenses than newborns, although at first blush it would seem that an infant in diapers requires more attention and healthcare than a 70-year-old retiree. Not really. To focus on some U.S. centric mathematical realities, several years ago Mary Meeker in a 500 page, softbound edition entitled “USA Inc.” put together a series of U.S. Treasury and other government reports that outlined just how dire America’s future demographic is in terms of financial liabilities. It is one thing to put readers to sleep with a 2030 forecast for aging boomers, as shown in Chart 1 but another to use the government’s own present value of these debts as of 2016. If financial market observers seem aghast at current Greek or Puerto Rican debt traps, they would surely take a double dose of Xanax when confronted with this: Fact – The U.S. government has current outstanding debt of approximately $16 Trillion or close to 100% GDP. The present value, however of Medicaid ($35 trillion), Medicare ($23 trillion), and Social Security ($8 trillion) promised under existing program totals $66 trillion or another 400% of GDP. We are broke and don’t even know it, or to return to my opening analogy, we are having our cake, eating it at the same time and believing that a new cellphone app will be invented in the near future to magically deliver more of the same. Not gonna happen folks.

Some politicians like Paul Ryan who argue for balanced fiscal budgets are intelligent sounding but relatively clueless. “Austerity – if not now, then when?”, he would argue in Reaganesque twitter. “Let’s slow down or even stop the inexorable clicking of the debt clock: 16 trillion, 17 trillion, 18 trillion”…he would add. Well yes, every little bit helps, Mr. Ryan, but the fact of the matter is (a great political phrase, is it not?) that reducing the growth rate of current government debt does little to help what in essence is a demographic not a financial problem: too few Millennials to take care of too many Boomers. Social Security “lock boxes” or Medicare/Medicaid “trust funds” which in essence represent “pre-funded” liability systems, cannot correct this demographic imbalance, because financial assets represent a “call” on future production. If that production could possibly be saved like squirrels ferreting away nuts for a long winter, then Treasury bonds or purchasing corporate stocks might make some sense. But they can’t. Future healthcare for Boomer seniors can only be provided by today’s Millennials and even doctors yet to be born. We cannot store their energy today for some future rainy day. Nor can we save food, transportation or entertainment for anything more than a few years forward. Each of those must be provided by a future generation of workers for the use of retired Boomers. And as Chart 1 points out, the ratio of retirees to workers – the dependency ratio – soars from 25 retirees for every worker to 35 over the next 10 years or so.

There’s your problem, and neither privatization nor any goodly number of government bonds deposited in the Social Security “lock box” can solve it. While these paper assets may “pay” for goods and services, their value will be market adjusted in future years to exactly match the quantity of things we buy, and that quantity will be substantially a function of the available workforce and the price they command for their services. This is another way of saying that the value of Treasury bonds and even private pension held stocks will be marked down in price as they are sold to pay for future goods and services, and that the price of these goods and services will be marked up (inflation) to justify their reduced demographic supply. Productivity gains are often advanced as a solution but productivity gains have been shrinking in recent years, and even so, employed workers cannot be expected to hand over future advances to retirees without a fight. Having more babies would also turn the trick, but at the moment, making fewer seems to be the going trend.



Investment implications? Well it is true that if much of the developing world is younger demographically (think India), then developed nations could and should transfer an increasing percentage of their financial assets to emerging markets to help foot the demographic bills back home. Long-term then, as opposed to currently, think about increasing your asset allocation to the developing world. It’s also commonsensical that if higher Millennial wages are the probable result of a shortage of healthcare workers relative to Boomer requirements, then an investor should go long inflation and short fixed coupons. U.S. 10-year TIPS at 80 basis points seem like a good hedge in that regard. And of course in terms of specific equity sectors, healthcare should thrive, while liability handcuffed financial corporations such as insurance companies as well as the bonds of underfunded cities and states such as Chicago and Illinois, should not. Other countries have similar burdens. The Financial Times reports that the UK pension industry faces a 20-year wait until they might have enough cash to meet their liabilities in 2036. Until then, they cannot. In general, it seems demographically commonsensical that Boomers have in part been responsible for asset appreciation during the heyday of their productive years and that now, drip by drip, year by year, they will need to sell those assets to someone or some country in order to pay their own bills. Asset returns will therefore be lower than historical norms, especially because interest rates are close to 0% in developed countries.

Demographics may not rule absolutely, but they likely will dominate investment markets and returns for the next few decades until the Boomer phenomena fades away. The 1% – in addition to the 99 – will need extra doses of Xanax, or additional slices of cake, to cope in the next few decades. Let the games begin.

Why Would He Say This?

Posted January 6th, 2016 at 4:52 PM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

Based on the title, you might be guessing “who said what”? It could be thought we are discussing one of the many ridiculous quotes by Jim Cramer. His latest was a rant about how our market should not be down this morning “because” North Korea allegedly lit off and tested a nuke. He went on to say “look at earnings, they can’t be the problem, Monsanto and Sonic beat handily”… Really? Good earnings at Sonic are a sign of economic and financial health?

We could also be talking about president Obama’s speech yesterday where he actually mentioned a few folks have been killed by guns in Chicago of all places. I could be wrong, but I have never heard him mention any problems in that utopian metropolis? Amongst the many points he tried to make, he spoke of the children in Sandy Hook who were “killed” with tears in his eyes. I don’t recall seeing any tears over the heroes who were actually killed in Benghazi? These were true heroes and not part of a drill.

(As an addendum, partner Jim Sinclair made comments to this paragraph):

“Where are the tears for the 2 volunteers who gave their lives to defend our flag and embassy. Where is the bronze statue that should be on the ground on the green now in Washington showing them in action. These volunteers set up a cross fire position and took out over 70 terrorists before they were overrun by shear numbers. They knew their end before they began. How about a statue to the two snipers that came out of a safe helicopter repelling down ropes to defend Blackhawk down pilots held down under severe incoming fire. These four men knew that what they were doing was going to end their lives painfully, but as modern day patriots were proud to give up their safety and lives for the honor of defending the American Flag and the US ambassador. What has become of repayment we all owe to our vets for all these boutique wars over oil and politics? Oh my what has happened to our country. This comment is probably not politically correct, will bring in hoards of liberal trolls, but does bring tears to my eyes.”
–Jim Sinclair

No, these two are not what has me baffled because I would expect what they said. Yesterday, former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher was on CNBC. PLEASE watch this video

! I can’t believe what he said and I can’t believe there was no “power outage” at CNBC to shut him off! I can believe CNBC “edited for space” the 7:28 recording down to under four minutes where some of the “juice” was removed.

In a nutshell, Mr. Fisher admitted “What The Fed did, and I was part of it, was front-loaded an enormous rally market rally in order to create a wealth effect…” and followed with “The Fed is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left.”!!! I do want to point out the term “front loading” could be replaced with many other words such as “rigged, manipulated, supported or even forced” and the meaning would still be the same!

Why would he say this? And why now? I am sure these two questions, (the first in particular) are being asked all over in elite land. The “wizard” behind the curtain must be none too happy with Mr. Fisher’s confession! To bluntly answer the two questions, Mr. Fisher must have a guilty conscience and wants to separate himself from “blame” just as Alan Greenspan has attempted. Put simply, “he knows”! He knows what they (the Fed) did, he knows the result (bubbles everywhere you look) and he knows the “timeline” to the unwind (now)!

I don’t want to do a complete review of everything he said for the sake of time. Please view the video for yourself as the entire seven minute interview is as inflammatory and full of truth as any interview I could do in 30 minutes. The phrases “over valued, unwind, front loaded, giant weapon, no ammunition, horrible crisis, over inflated, we went one step too far, we had already purchased $1 trillion in securities by March 2009, that was sufficient and we had launched the rocket, it was the Fed the Fed the Fed and other central banks …that’s not the way markets should be working, markets were juiced up by central banks” were all included. I could go on and on but you get the picture. Mr. Fisher in one 7:00 interview wrapped up and confirmed everything us “nutjobs” have been saying all along!

He did stop one step short of the reality we nutjobs see mathematically coming. He got close when using the term “unwind” but stopped short and did not go all the way. This “unwind” is going to end in the closure of markets all around the globe. Forget about circuit breakers, the only way to stop the selling once it gets out of control …will be to take control by pulling the plug out of the wall! THANK YOU Mr. Fisher, now when someone laughs at me I will send them a link to your interview!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter